EDGscout选手资料在哪看 edgscout选手资料介绍

曾经作为一个新人来到EDG中单的Scout现在已经慢慢成长为EDG最为稳定的Carry点，如今斩获全球总决赛的桂冠，凭借出色的节奏和操作经常能够为队伍带来胜利，详细个人资料尽在下方。

Scout个人资料介绍

1、基础资料

姓名 李汭灿 战队 EDG战队

国籍 韩国 位置 中单

2、主要成绩

2016年 LPL春季赛亚军

2016年 LPL夏季赛冠军

2016年 德玛西亚杯总决赛冠军

2017年 LPL春季赛季军

2017年 LPL夏季赛冠军

2017年 德玛西亚杯冬季赛冠军

2018年 LPL春季赛冠军

2019年 德玛西亚杯亚军

2021年 LPL夏季赛冠军

2021年 S11全球总决赛冠军

2022年 LPL夏季赛季军

3、生涯英雄

4、职业场均对比

5、基础数据

总结

Scout这位选手是一位实力十分强劲的选手，不管在LPL或者LCK赛区都有着不弱的声望，

他有着深不见底的英雄池，面对不同的对手能够选出自己不同的拿手英雄去进行对线，

他更是队伍的中的核心，能够在比赛中有着出色的发挥，有着相当卓越的操作能力与表现。

Scout相关介绍

1、为什么叫多多

原因一

之前在skt战队IDE时候，队友一直喊他的昵称，这个昵称是韩文字，最后翻译成中文的意思就是叫“多多”

原因二

他在2017年的时候在比赛中用岩雀场数比较多，被人家广泛称呼岩雀多，后来这个外号直接升华成了李多多。

2、为什么叫小学弟

因为他跟deft、faker是同一所学校的，而年级比他们小，之前还是faker的地步，使用粉丝叫他小学弟

3、scout中文名怎么读

他的中文名自叫：李纳璨(li na can)

大家也可以叫他李汭灿，两个读法是一样的，只是单纯的翻译区别而已。

4、edgscout为什么不用服兵役

他还是需要服兵役的，只是现在目前岁数还没有到达服兵役最晚时间，所以不着急，而且只需要负代替兵或者公益兵就可以了的。

5、edgscout会说中文吗

会说中文的，毕竟每天都和队员互动，而且也来LPL赛区很多年了，中文采访也不需要翻译，中文可以说的上是非常厉害了。

INTO THE STORM

FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials China’s economic juggernaut powered on And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm

过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。

No longer As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits

不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。

Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article) That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt Less well-endowed countries are asking for help Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($66 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help

新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。

Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article) But even stalwarts are looking weaker Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years

有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。

Blowing cold on credit

对信贷没兴趣

The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months But their economic fate will also have political consequences

众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。

In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments But even strong regimes could suffer Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance

在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire All emerging economies will slow Some will surely face deep recessions But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe

幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。

One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse That has a mixed effect Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises

至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。

The more dangerous shock is financial Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article) This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth

比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。

Again, the impact will differ by country Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year

需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。

A wing and a prayer

飞行之翼与祈祷者

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe The biggest ones are in relatively good shape The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped

信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world

在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家***已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。

The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones

其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma That needs to change The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world

受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

left - cleft deft heft theft weft

right - rite, write, whrite 如果不是完全相同的，就太多了，这里只给你几个：

white, night, alright, recite, light, bright, etc

Dandy自从成为RNG教练之后，还是为团队带来了许多改变，如果是之前Heart教练用围绕Uzi发挥AD优势最大化的打法拿到全面六冠，那么打野出身的Dandy就以自己的理解为RNG带来全新改变。

现年25岁的Dandy在去年之前都是一位职业选手，曾经随三星白收获S4赛季全球总冠军，是当时队内的主力打野，丰富的职业履历让Dandy在场上BP时不像heart那样固执死板，会试着学习其他赛区最为流行的全新打法，像年后RNG与VG的比赛中，模仿最近LCK大热的上单约里克并最终守到奇效，AJ第二盘要是拿到的不是约里克这样的强力带线英雄，很可能那波与时间赛跑会很难成功。

还有昨晚与EDG的两场对决，都让小虎拿到佐伊这样的carry英雄，也有给karsa选到最近比较热的打野奥拉夫，两盘阵容上也是非常完美，第一盘厄加特、奥拉夫、佐伊、卡莎和牛头，牛头先手开团，奥拉夫和厄加特分割战场，佐伊和卡莎后排收割，分工明确。第二盘保持厄加特和佐伊，其他三人则是换成前期节奏更强的赵信，对线更突出的奥巴马以及大招支援能力更强的加里奥，要知道在之前RNG的加里奥几乎只会走中，那个时候小虎不是丽桑卓就是加里奥，没法发挥个人优势就只能一直混，dandy依据打法潮流以及选手状态能够选择出最为合适的阵容。

从上任以后的几场比赛来看，Dandy至少在bp方面还是有点东西，也许是本来就来自韩国，Dandy对于LCK战队的打法借鉴比较多，本身LCK和LPL两个赛区的打法节奏各不相同，能够互相学习取长补短未尝不是一件好事，年仅25岁的Dandy虽然刚刚进入教练圈，但是思维转化的速度要比老教练来的更为灵活。

当然一名教练的成功与否不能只凭借几场比赛就下定论，到了世界赛场、最艰难困苦的关键时期，能否拿出奇招一招制敌或是在局势混乱中拨乱反正解决问题，都是考验一名教练核心能力的要义，相信Dandy能够出色胜任RNG主教练一职，带领RNG重新找到比赛胜利的方式。

能不能胜任，要看rng在新赛季需要什么了。

dandy，s4世界冠军打野——这么一想，这是继heart之后，又一个三星毕业的选手来当教练了。

dandy的个人实力不用多说，ssw雷恩加尔的皮肤已经足以证明，在s5的时候和mata俩人，带着vg半死不活的阵容打得有声有色。后来dandy辗转多地，也渐渐淡出了我们的视野。

有个网友说得好，作为s4时期皇族的宿敌，却在这个皇族被千夫所指的低谷，选择以教练的身份加入，这本身就很值得尊敬。

如果rng需要强心剂，那么dandy会是非常给力的一支。

不过现在还是有两个问题。

第一个问题，韩国教练加入后，rng还算全华班 ？

毕竟不像之前，只有rng是全华班底，如果教练是韩国人也算，那引入了侯爷的sn也是全华班

要不以后别卖全华班的情怀了呗？谢谢嗷

第二个问题，你的对三到底出不出

　鉴于大家都很关心这件事，就在刚刚RNG俱乐部也是正式官宣了主教练的人选，他就是前著名打野选手DanDy，RNG方面表示DanDy作为S4全球总决赛的冠军打野，是一名非常资深的职业选手，希望明年他能带领RNG再攀高峰。

　　对于RNG的这个新主教练网友们也是议论纷纷，有网友表示“这波看好RNG，Dandy当年也算是个挺厉害的职业选手，在专业战术方面没问题，缺乏经验可以让孙大永慢慢带，两个人感觉很互补，这新赛季要起飞的节奏啊。”

　　还有网友表示“先是mata再是heart这次是dandy我算看出来了，RNG就是盯着老三星挖人的，不过不得不说RNG这波操作确实可以，着实让人意想不到，现在就想知道这个教练会说中文吗，我怕他们听不懂。”

　　不过也有网友有不同的看法，有网友表示“其实dandy也还好吧，之前做选手的时候是有过高光时刻，但做教练真不好说，而且据说dandy的中文不是很好是拿不出来吹的，他在vg待了两年中文真的就那样，可能只比deft 好一点，他其实也是属于那批在中国淘金的三星队员里，适应的不是好的那种，RNG这波操作算是机遇与挑战并存吧。”

　　确实以RNG现在的名气和实力，本以为这次换教练会找一个圈内名气大已经比较成熟的教练，没想到直接直接买一个刚刚转型的dandy，这一波操作确实是很有挑战性，不过以dandy之前选手的经历来看，做好这个主教练应该也没什么问题，所以对于RNG的这个新主教练你们有什么想说的吗？

事实证明了，再厉害的打野也干不过资本家，在lpl成为仅次于na的第二大超级联赛的时候，这里的第二大我指的是财团介入方面的，所以每一个有抱负的教练都会被迫做出改变。

Lpl一直以来都有“造神”工程，事实上咱们整个民族都偏爱造神，喜欢把一些东西神话，传的神乎其神。自从老we的微笑到omg的上单之光，再到新人小7，这一系列的造神运动，其实都是为了达到自己的牌面。

小狗作为国内的元老级的职业选手，本身的技战术操作过硬，而且拥有一定的荣誉，但是刚开始由于一些本身不太成熟的做法使得不被官方所认可，因此官方一直在捧其他选手。但是当其他选手都被捧炸了之后，官方才不得已把目光放到了这个一直都表现不错的小胖子身上，也就是说从s6之后小狗才主要受到官方的大力吹捧。

正因为这种情况下，每一个作为小狗队伍教练的人员到最后都会变成一个4保一战术的核心拥护者，其实不是他们没有想法，也不是他们的技战术储备不够丰富，说白了只是他们抵不过资本的压力。说到这里可能很多人对于资本很不满意，但是放到资本市场来看的话，资本无对错，资本永不眠。因此在资本的lpl，dandy也就是个傀儡和提线木偶。

dandy:老子终于回lpl勒！终于又可以斗地主了，一对3！要不起！

起哄和跟风。 这点没什么好分析的，不管哪个国家的人，都有起哄的恶习。 在其他国家看比赛的时候，不还是一起喊TSM，那你说，喊TSM，有什么特别的含义嘛，并没有。 既不是尊敬，又不是嘲讽，只是别人喊的热闹，忍不住就跟着一起喊罢了。

更多资讯请来DD373租号平台

pseudo-deft sentence 假拟分裂句

分裂句是以it 为引导的强调句型，你做的这个题是要改成强调句。

例如：

I told him the news yesterday

It is I that told him the news yesterday

麻利má lì

中文解释 - 英文翻译

麻利的中文解释

以下结果由汉典提供词典解释

基本解释

1 [deft;dexterous;smart;be quick and neat]∶迅速敏捷

一个很麻利的工人

干活麻利

2 [quickly]〈方〉∶立刻;赶快

厂里有急事,叫你麻利回去

详细解释

1 亦作“ 麻俐 ”。1敏捷。老练。

《二十年目睹之怪现状》第二十回：“你出门没有几时，就历练的这么麻利了！” 杨朔 《百花山》：“手脚麻俐，走路又轻又快，机灵得像只猫儿。” 高元钧 《师长帮厨》：“咱们动作麻俐要快当。”

2 敏捷。方言。迅速；赶快。

从维熙 《故乡散记》：“ 翠枝儿 看看天，麻利跑回来了。”参见“ 麻力 ”。

INTO THE STORM

FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials China’s economic juggernaut powered on And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm

过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。

No longer As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits

不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。

Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article) That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt Less well-endowed countries are asking for help Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($66 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help

新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。

Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article) But even stalwarts are looking weaker Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years

有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。

Blowing cold on credit

对信贷没兴趣

The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months But their economic fate will also have political consequences

众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。

In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments But even strong regimes could suffer Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance

在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire All emerging economies will slow Some will surely face deep recessions But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe

幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。

One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse That has a mixed effect Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises

至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。

The more dangerous shock is financial Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article) This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth

比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。

Again, the impact will differ by country Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year

需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。

A wing and a prayer

飞行之翼与祈祷者

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe The biggest ones are in relatively good shape The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped

信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world

在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家***已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。

The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones

其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma That needs to change The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world

受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。